Launch of The Venice Project

At long last, The Venice Project has launched its beta. This is the latest offering from Skype founders Janus Friis and Niklas Zennstrom. Business Week has written about it and the beta was just released on a limited scale.

I’ll be test driving it and I’ll let you know what I think.

Initial impression is quite positive. Very, very good picture and sound quality, especially in view of the standard high speed connection I am using.

Will cable companies avoid new markets?

In response to Monday’s regulatory relief announcement, a spokesman for Rogers speculated that some cable firms that had been planning to introduce local phone services in different cities might scrap the plans once they find out Bell and others will be able to undercut their rates right out of the gate, backstopped by their revenues from other sources. Speaking of the incumbent telcos, he said:

They don’t want to lower prices for customers generally. What they really want to do is pick off the customers that have gone over to the competition, call them the very next day, offer them $100, $200 if they come back, and that way they send a message to the new entrant saying don’t bother being aggressive

Is that a realistic scenario? Rogers and Shaw have been able to enjoy ‘disciplined pricing’ for their local phone services so far and both have grabbed sizable shares of the market in the regions in which they offer service.

Among the cable companies, Videotron has demonstrated aggressive pricing that still appears to deliver profitable returns.

In any case, the cable companies have been expecting forbearance for the ILECs anyway. The telcos are close to the 25% in many major markets. The incremental ARPU is likely too attractive to leave alone.

So what is behind the statement that smaller cable firms may avoid launching voice services altogether?

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Telco variations on a theme

>Over the past 3 days, Canada’s major telecom carriers provided their guidance for the coming year: Tuesday was Bell (TSX: BCE); Wednesday was MTS Allstream (TSX: MBT); and, Thursday was TELUS (TSX: T).

You can read the regular newspapers to decipher the financial forecasts, or read the reports that each of the major financial houses are issuing with their updated forecasts for the sector.

Income trusts, how much longer they will defer payment of taxes, dividends, share buybacks, increasing shareholder value, improved focus, receptive to Monday’s regulatory reforms. But you need to look beyond the common themes to try to understand what is happening in the battles between them.

Although TELUS has been viewed as having the greater exposure to higher growth in wireless, it now seems to be feeling competitive pressures in that sector, lowering its forecasts for year end 2006 as I described in yesterday’s post. Bell’s overall guidance for earnings growth (~5%) is substantially the same as that for TELUS, with benefits arising from its investments in its sometimes painful systems and process re-engineering efforts.

Of the three carriers setting objectives this week, only Bell conducted its review meeting live, providing analysts with an opportunity to chat with the company executives and each other. MTS Allstream had a conference call and webcast that was held with the CEO and his operating presidents as well as the CFO. In the case of TELUS, it was all finance – just the CFO by phone and webcast, having to address questions that may have been better answered by business unit heads.

I know this industry is all about telecommunications. But the ‘next best thing to being there’ is just not the same as actually being there.

Gold medal to Bell. The silver goes to MTS Allstream for making it clear that the business units are signed up to the guidance. TELUS has received recognition for disclosure and governance, but would the awards be jeopardized if its operating executives were on hand to demonstrate ownership of and commitment to the forecasts set out in the 2007 business plan?

Call me old fashioned, if you want, but there is much to be said about the chance to see the expressions on the faces and share the kibbitzing over coffee.

CRTC reports on the future of broadcasting

CRTCIn June, Bev Oda, the Minister of Canadian Heritage, asked the CRTC to examine the future technological environment facing the Canadian broadcasting industry.

The CRTC today issued its report entitled “The Future Environment Facing the Canadian Broadcasting System”.

As stated in the press release:

the report notes that Canadians, and younger Canadians in particular, are increasingly accessing programming through unregulated electronic platforms, such as the Internet and mobile networks. The CRTC considers that new audio-visual technologies will have an increasing affect on broadcasting undertakings over time. As a result, the detailed and ongoing monitoring of developments in the evolution, contribution and impact of audio-visual technologies will be an essential foundation to an informed public policy response.

According to CRTC Chair Charles Dalfen:

Based on the information provided to us, the CRTC concludes that public policy action will need to be taken within the next three to seven years if it is to have the desired effect, otherwise it may well come too late.

It should be worthwhile weekend reading.

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Frank and Fido take a bite out of TELUS

The big news from the TELUS guidance conference call may have been a small footnote on the year-end 2006 wireless net additions. TELUS (TSX: T) is now expecting only 550,000 net adds for 2006, a drop from a range of 560-590,000 given in their guidance only a month ago. In the 4th quarter of 2005, TELUS added 235,000 subs. The revised guidance is pointing to less than 200,000 in the year end rush of 2006, more in line with numbers last seen in 2003 and 2004.

The Christmas season is not delivering the results that TELUS was looking for, possibly pointing to brighter lights shining at other carriers, including the cable resellers and discounted brands like Rogers’ Fido and Bell’s Solo.

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