Disruptive forces

SASAbout two-thirds of telecom and technology firms have had a new rival enter their market with innovative products or services, according to a recent report from the Economist Intelligence Unit. The report was sponsored by SAS.

Opening up: How R&D; is changing in the telecommunications sector today“, [ pdf] cites the entry of Apple into the mobile phone market as an example impacting both technology firms and wireless service providers.

Most of those companies that had not yet faced innovative new competitors expected a disruption to impact them soon. Just 8% of the firms surveyed for the report believe they are immune to such shifts.

Eighty percent of executives worry about the entry of new rivals and expect the complexity and pace of R&D; to increase over the next two years. Over the same period, half expect to see product life-cycles shorten, adding pressure to the innovation process.

The paper discusses firms embracing the principles of “open innovation”, engaging suppliers, partners, academia and customers in the process.

Other key findings from the report include:

  • Telecom firms plan to deliver more products than before, with shorter lifecycles.
  • Embracing a more open approach brings organizational challenges.

Download the report. It will make for some interesting reading over the holiday weekend.

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Mobile data for the masses

RogersWith a month and a half of experience behind them, Rogers has had a chance to look at how people are using their 3G iPhones. Recall that the iPhone launched in Canada with a $30 monthly data plan that permitted 6GB of downloads.

Considering that the first wave of customers were the early adopters, and people who might have tried to really put the device through its paces, you would think that a bunch of folks might have exceeded the download cap.

As it turns out, Peter Nowak was right when he wrote that Rogers original plan providing 400MB would satisfy most people. In the first 6 weeks, 95% of all iPhone customers downloaded less than 500MB in a month.

So, Rogers has announced some price plan adjustments that will enable some savings for many 3G smart phone users. The current offer of 6GB plan for $30 has been extended to September 30, to enable people who were waiting for the Blackberry Bold to get activated.

Effective October 1, there will be a new rate plan that provides 500MB of downloads for $25. 95% of Rogers’ iPhone customers can save $5 per month by downgrading to this plan.

After October 1, $30 will get you 1GB; and a new $80 plan will provide 8GB. Regardless of your plan, excess data is charged at a rate of 3 cents per MB.

Rogers is putting in place tools to help customers understand and manage their data usage. For the first three months of their data plans, there are no data charges – Freedom of Data. This enables users to adjust their price plans to match the way they actually using their devices.

Rogers will send text message alerts when users are at their data limits and there is a safety net – a $100 cap on excess data charges in order to avoid awkward month-end surprises.

Here is a comparison of the evolution of rate plans this year:

2008 Prices

Jan 1

June 20

July 11

Oct 1

$15 2MB 2MB N/A 2MB
$25 4MB 4MB N/A 500MB
$30 N/A 300MB 6GB 1GB
$50 N/A 500MB N/A 2GB
$60 30 MB 1GB N/A 3GB
$80 500MB 3GB N/A 8GB
$100 1GB 6GB N/A N/A

Most significantly, Rogers plans cover all data – you can even tether your smart phone to your notebook computer or move your SIM to your PC’s air card; the same rates apply.

As such, $80 for 8GB makes Rogers mobile data pretty attractive. How does Canada compare to Ghana now?

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Smarter rate plans

As you read here in July, Rogers’ $30 for a 6GB of 3G data was offered to customers who activated select smart phones (including the iPhone) before August 31.

Well, August 31 is this Sunday, so a question has been what comes next?

We’ll have details available at noon.

Changing dynamics

At a family function this past weekend, I saw some friends for the first time in 30 years. We had a chance to speak about the challenges of staying in touch in the good old days.

There was a time, in the not so distant past, that long distance calls were a ‘big deal.’ Sunday afternoons included the weekly ritual of phone calls to our grandparents on the east coast. Play time was punctuated by shouting to come in quickly: “It’s long distance.”

In my college days, calls to/from home were timed for 11:01 pm – those big discount periods were worth waiting for. And international long distance? You would have to choose between a nice dinner and a 3 minute call to Europe.

Now, we pick up the phone and call when we want. Most countries in the world are less than a nickel a minute, any time of day. In our house, we don’t stop to think about making a long distance call from a wired phone, especially when you consider that an hour long call is about the same price as a cup of coffee.

I wrote yesterday of the continued trend for people to cancel their residential phone service. For mobile to be a complete substitute, there is still work to be done. Most service providers offer North America calling, sold in buckets of minutes. But absent a monthly plan, mobile long distance calling in Canada or the US attracts rates reminiscent of the wired world of 20 years ago. And overseas? Don’t think about it.

This is not just a Canadian phenomenon. My US cell phone charges 5 times as much to call Canada compared to US nationwide rates. As a result, mobile phones preserve a profitable business for prepaid calling cards.

Which mobile carriers will be first to recognize the opportunity of enabling 10-10 dial access? With growing adoption of mobile substitution for residential phone service, will incumbents wait for the new mobile entrants or try a preemptive launch of more affordable global calling?

Cutting the cord

Public Works recently commissioned a study to look at households that have cut the umbilical to become ‘mobile-only.’ There were a number of news reports [eg. here].

There were some interesting numbers in the reports. For now, I’ll focus on the geographic variability: the trend is more noticeable in British Columbia – TELUS territory – with 10.2 percent of all households now relying exclusively on mobile telephony. Alberta had 7.7%, while in Bell Canada’s home base, Ontario (5.3%) and Quebec (6.3%) fared significantly better.

Despite the possibility that an ILEC’s wireless operations might retain the customers, about half of all wireless customers go to one of the ‘other companies’ in any given ILEC territory.

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