Is wireline telephony dying?

Two and a half years ago, Om Malik spoke about a study from Probe Group that spoke of the impending death of the fixed line business model – to be replaced by wireless. As it turns out, the research group that produced the warning disappeared well before the wireline business did.

Is wireline telephony going away? The attraction of traditional landlines is in decline. Fax usage is diminishing. Second lines for dial-up internet are pretty much historical artifacts. So, at least some of the decline in number of residential lines in the recent past may be attributed to changes in adoption of second lines.

On the business side, VoIP-based systems change the way we need to count enterprise lines. Business PBXs may use numbers without corresponding lines or ‘Network Access Services’.

Still, wireless substitution is a reality that needs to recognized. A new report came out last week warning the cable companies of the same troubles that Probe forecasted in 2004: the risk of going after a share of a dying business. On the other hand, a refutation of the report says that the fixed line market is so big that it is still attractive for cable companies. Which is it?

It is worthwhile looking at the Canadian cable approach – cable companies with both wireless and wireline offerings. Among such companies, Rogers is best positioned operating with its own wireless facilities, the largest national mobile services provider, bundling with its cable-based services in Ontario and parts of Atlantic Canada, and telephony wireline in the rest of Canada.

With a different angle, Videotron announced Duophone, offering unlimited calling between Videotron wireless residential cable telephone subscribers.

With nearly two thirds of the wireless market tied up in the hands of incumbent telephone companies, there may have been conflicting incentives for the mobile operators to aggressively target wireline substitution.

Videotron appears prepared to disrupt the stability of the marketplace. Their approach is non-traditional.

Among questions to ask: will Videotron bid for spectrum in the next wireless auction?

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Music on hold

What irony. I am sitting on hold at a call centre, with music interrupted only by a periodic announcement that my call is very important to them, and Elton John’s Rocket Man came on.

Here I am, at the 15 minute mark, listening to “and I think it’s gonna be a long, long time.” Really encouraging.

Note to call centre managers: pull that song from your music queue. But it was great foreshadowing, or a good warning. I was on hold for 45 minutes and that was with my call being “very important” to them. I feel sorry for the unimportant callers.

Anyone have other songs that don’t seem right for call centres? Operators are standing by. Your call is very important to me. But, you may find it easier to just click on the ‘comments’ link.

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KINSA: working for a safer internet

Addressing the dark side of the web is a concern for many of us.

At the Canadian Information Productivity Awards in Toronto last week, Paul Gillespie spoke about the work he is doing with KINSA, the Kid’s Internet Safety Alliance, and CETS, the Child Exploitation Tracking System. He received the only standing ovation of the evening. He spoke to the information technology industry about his work trying to track down child exploitation and predators. It was something people could understand. It wasn’t self-serving. His brief speech set out clear social benefits of his work. He spoke, in part, of the need for legislative reform to enable his work to proceed.

The Telecom Policy Review includes a recommendation that addresses some of these reforms, part of which is contained in the recommendation discussed in yesterday’s posting. More needs to be done, with cooperation of the industry and others.

To explore solutions, the topic of illegal content on the internet requires reasoned discussion and debate. Paul Gillespie has agreed to return to speak at The 2007 Canadian Telecom Summit next June.

Fear of two-tiered internet

This week, Michael Geist wrote in the Toronto Star that he is concerned that selective deregulation of the phone companies and the failure to implement the complete bundle of recommendations of the Telecom Policy Review (TPR) panel could lead to the development of a two-tiered internet in Canada.

His belief that adoption of the TPR report will bring salvation from the scourge of a two-tiered internet is not founded in fact. He writes about being concerned about ISPs traffic shaping of applications like movie and music downloading applications.

The Star article selectively quotes the TPR as including a net neutrality provision that calls for legislative changes to:

confirm the right of Canadian consumers to access publicly available Internet applications and content of their choice by means of all public telecommunications networks providing access to the Internet.

But the citation in the Star neglected to complete that passage. TPR Recommendation 6-5 continues with

This amendment should

(a) authorize the CRTC to administer and enforce these consumer access rights,
(b) take into account any reasonable technical constraints and efficiency considerations related to providing such access, and
(c) be subject to legal constraints on such access, such as those established in criminal, copyright and broadcasting laws.

Those omitted sentences would appear to permit the traffic sculpting of ‘legitimate peer-to-peer’ applications that offended the author. Part (b) seems to be designed to take into account the technical realities of the internet as a shared network resource.

Another complaint raised in the Star was in respect of Shaw’s quality of service enhancements for over-the-top VoIP service. On September 21, in Decision 2006-61, the CRTC ruled that certain enhancements that the cable companies used in providing their own services may indeed discriminate, but the Commission ruled this was not ‘undue discrimination.’

The TPR actually seems to lean towards letting the ISPs make reasonable decisions, but with clarity of information provided to customers. As we wrote last March when the report was first released:

Given the complexity of this area, the rapid evolution of technologies and the market dynamics, the Panel believes the regulator here should have more discretion than in other areas of regulation. However, the Panel also believes this discretion should be exercised with a view to encouraging reliance on market forces and customer choice as much as possible. For example, there may be situations in which a customer wants an ISP to block access to particular applications or content. In addition, some customers may be willing to accept a reduced degree of access in exchange for a lower price. Such consumer choices should be respected.

In the Panel’s view, the purpose of a customer access rule should be consumer protection, and there should be a strong emphasis on ensuring that customers have the information required to make informed choices. In this way, the rule would promote the efficient operation of market forces.

It merits repeating our view that the TPR provides a Solomonic balance of interests.

By the way, Professor Geist has agreed to join our panel examining illegal content on the internet at The 2007 Canadian Telecom Summit in June. We look forward to a lively discussion.

Increasing the speed of light

When I studied physics, the speed of light was considered to be a constant.

So imagine my surprise when I read a press release entitled “MTS Allstream increases High Speed Internet Light Speed”.

On reading the text, I realized that MTS didn’t increase the speed of light. It increased the download speed for its ‘light’ internet. Like many of the carriers, MTS offers 3 tiers of internet speeds: Light, Lightning and Lightning MAX.

No optical wave enhancements. For now.

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