Bell 2Q06

Bell‘s results came out this morning, on the footsteps of a couple changes in the executive suite.

Yesterday, confirming a widely expected move, Bell announced that Wade Oosterman has joined George Cope in the executive ranks, taking on the dual role of President of Bell Mobility and Bell Distribution Inc. (BDI), as well as Chief Brand Officer of Bell Canada. At the same time, Isabelle Courville has stepped aside from leading large business sales; she has been replaced by Stéphane Boisvert, formerly of Sun Microsystems Inc.

Numbers of interest: Wireless churn is at 1.1%, beating Rogers numbers of 1.27%. With number portability coming next March, we might expect a number of customers to continue to stay where they are, paying month-to-month, until they are able to take their numbers with them. Watch for special deals or hot new hardware (like the LG Chocolate or Motorola Q) to try to entice customers to lock-in prior to March.

Local lines continue to decline, but long distance minutes aren’t declining as much – which means customers are continuing to make more calls. Average rates for long distance are still dropping.

Wireless average revenue per user is up, although not as much as at Rogers. Interestingly, Bell’s mobile subscribers, at 270 minutes per month, continue to use their phones less than Rogers subscribers (561 minutes). What does this mean for relative network costs and resultant profitability?

Does this mean that Rogers is perceived as having better calling plans for heavier volume users? If so, the implications could be that Bell may need to get more aggressive with new price plans as portability in March 2007 approaches.

The vanishing utilities

ElectricityAccording to the CRTC’s monitoring report, the Ontario phenomenon of municipal electric utility companies in the telecom business may have peaked.

Table 3.1.1 of the report shows revenues having peaked in 2003 at $132.3M, declining to $95.5M in 2004 and only $68.5M in 2005. That seems to indicate a 50% drop in sector revenues in only 2 years.

Is this a reporting problem from the CRTC or is this an indication that utilities are changing their minds about the attraction of telecom?

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Discretion – the better part…

Bell

Three weeks ago, Bell, Aliant and SaskTel applied for forbearance for discretionary services (caller ID, voicemail, extra listings, etc.). According to the Application:

the nature of discretionary services is such that there are market forces, quite apart from competitive pressures, that discipline the pricing of these services by the Companies

Given that competitors are bundling features with their dial tone, it looks like the incumbents are after greater flexibility to retain their customers.

A letter from the CRTC today seems to indicate the Commission is considering whether to issue a public notice. Stay tuned.

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Breaking inertial orbit.

RogersRogers released its quarterly numbers and Bay Street appears to be overjoyed. The stock immediately rose 10%.

Lots will be written about the various parts of Rogers that contributed to these quarterly numbers. I want to point out a couple little numbers that may get missed – a sign of the times.

One way messaging – paging – is down 20% compared to second quarter of 2005 and down 25% when we look at the first half of the year. Strangely, revenues actually rose 15% quarter over quarter – which may be a revenue recognition issue.

Are one-way pagers an artifact of the days before downloadable ringtones? What is the substitute – PDAs or text messaging? Are customers staying with Rogers when they terminate their paging contract?

An important measure for service providers is their ability to upgrade users from legacy products and retain them on their own upgraded product line. Any time that a user makes a change, there is an opportunity for the competition to take advantage of the decision to make a new purchase.

Like Physics 101, we’ll be looking through the carriers’ numbers this week to study the changes in inertial energy.

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Reporting challenges

As we wrote yesterday, terminology in describing the industry participants is an imprecise art and it is complicated by mergers and acquisitions.

Allstream and Sprint Canada have vanished as independent national facilities based competitors and now are part of hybrid organizations. In Allstream’s case, as the national operations of MTS, it is now referenced by the CRTC as part of the ‘ILECs out-of-territory’ category. Sprint Canada, since its acquisition by Rogers, is presumably part of the ‘Cable BDU’ category.

These industry structural changes make it difficult to examine year-over-year shifts in the market. In the CRTC‘s monitoring report, the examination of the Business Internet access market (Table 4.4.6) may have been distorted by the M&A; activity.

M&A; also is a factor in looking at Table 3.1.1, Total telecommunications revenues by type of service provider. Revenues from ‘Other facilities-based’ carriers has declined from $3.4B in 2001 to less than $100M in 2005. The acquisitions by MTS and Rogers of Allstream and Sprint Canada respectively explain most of the shift.

As a result, much of the growth in ILEC out-of-territory revenue between 2003 and 2004 and in Cable BDU growth for 2005 over 2004 is actually due to M&A; activity, rather than organic customer acquisitions.

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