A common element running through a number of presentations at Monday’s CWTA forum was tackling the myths of competition in Canadian mobile wireless, further challenging the call from some elements for government subsidies to stimulate a fourth national carrier. Later this week, I’ll write more about reaction from regional cable companies to spectrum set-asides.
Dvai Ghose of Genuity led off the ‘myth-busting’ with an attack on 8 myths in Canadian wireless:
- Wireless penetration is lower than the US due to prices
- Canadian ARPUs are high due to high usage
- ARPU is the only indicator of wireless affordability
- Canadian carriers are underspending on networks
- Canadian wireless consumers are unhappy
- Wireless is more of an oligopoly in Canada
- Consumers have very little choice
- Wireless has always been profitable
His conclusion was that the industry was not broken and government should not intervene.
Rob Bruce, president of Rogers Wireless, spoke of Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics during his luncheon keynote address. His talk took aim at the myth of a cozy relationship between the 3 major carriers.
He asked how cozy the industry can be when Canada has seen such a significant shift in market share over the past 5 years. According to his charts, Bell has seen its share of the postpaid market fall from 42% in 2001 to 23%. In the same period, TELUS share climbed from 21% to 32% and Rogers has grown from 20% to 45%.
The fireworks are just getting started.
Update: [April 25, 8:05 am]
Iain Grant – who was unavailable for Monday’s event in Ottawa – did an interview in today’s National Post. The theme of the article is the role of small players in pricing. Iain continues to call for subsidies for smaller players – like city of Toronto-owned Toronto Hydro Telecom, while conceding that Quebecor would not need the financial help. The interview suggests that there are really only 2 carriers in any given region; a myth that conveniently ignores the dozen or so brands and competitors that are acting in precisely the role of offering creative and often aggressive pricing alternatives.
I am hearing rumours that next week’s earnings reports may show more shifts in share. Hardly signs of coziness.