In October, we last looked at the OECD broadband statistics. The latest stats are out and I would have thought that Canadians should break out the champagne. It is interesting that I read the results so differently from the way Michael Geist at University of Ottawa interprets the same numbers.
The OECD itself states that “Canada continues to lead the G7 group of industrialized countries in broadband penetration.” While he acknowledges this triumph, somehow, Professor Geist sees a disturbing trend:
Needless to say, this is a pretty abysmal showing. Far from being an Internet leader, Canada is rapidly becoming a second tier country in terms of broadband penetration with limited broadband competition, hundreds of thousands of people with no hope of any broadband access
Abysmal? As in hopelessly bad?
How do we go from leading the G7 to ‘becoming a second tier country’? Do you think that we have a little bit of over-reaction? Maybe I’m just a ‘glass is half full’ kind of guy. Of course, in this case, I think the glass is more than half full.
Professor Geist expresses concern that Canada is near the bottom (second last, in fact) in terms of growth rates for broadband penetration. In reality, a declining rate of growth is a normal behaviour in a market approaching saturation. Look at who is dead last in growth rate: Iceland – a country ranked 3rd in overall broadband. South Korea is next to Canada at the bottom of growth and near the top on penetration per 100 inhabitants. You can find the tables on Michael Geist‘s blog. Don’t run out to get sack-cloth and ashes too quickly.
There is a fundamental problem with the OECD stats in any case. Unfortunately, the OECD measures broadband in terms of penetration per 100 inhabitants. A better indicator would likely be measurements per 100 households, which would normalize against differences in household size. After all, broadband connectivity is a family purchase, not that of individual members. A quick look using household numbers I found would see some significant shifts in OECD rankings. Differences in average household size will yield measurable changes in ranking countries that have populations with household access to broadband.
I’d like to hear if someone has looked at those stats.
Let’s address the comment [and often heard lament] that there are ‘hundreds of thousands of people in Canada with no hope of any broadband access.’ Where are they?
Thanks to companies like Barrett Xplore, there are no households in Canada beyond the reach of broadband service. Let’s explode that myth once and for all. Canadians have universal access to broadband internet.
John Maduri of Barrett Xplore will be speaking on June 11 on a panel looking at wireless options for broadband at The 2007 Canadian Telecom Summit.
Update: [April 26, 10:25 am]
I found some additional household size data – although it is from mixed years. When I plug that table into the OECD stats for broadband per 100 inhabitants, it yields some interesting information. South Korea’s numbers appear to make no sense – with 4.4 persons per household, South Korea appears to have 128% penetration of broadband – more than one broadband connection per home. Canada moves from number 9 to number 8, Australia jumps into 4th place, Denmark falls to 5th (from first) and Sweden drops out of the top 10 and falls behind the US.