Convergence Consulting has released a forecast [Summary pdf 
] for the Canadian mobile wireless market that predicts penetration rising from the current level of 64% to 96% in 2015.
Over the next 7 years, new entrants are expected to take 24% of the subscribers, which would seem to imply that the current carriers will continue to grow their customer base by about 12%. The report calls for Shaw, Quebecor and Globalive to each land 7%.
The report credits lower prices with accelerating industry subscriber growth rates to about 1.8 million per year (2010-2015) up from 1.45 million in 2007-2009. Twenty percent of Canadian households are expected to be “wireless only” by year-end 2015, nearly triple the 7.6% in that situation this year.
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