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With the Olympics acting as a bit of a distraction, it took me some time to get around to reading the CRTC report, “Navigating Convergence: Charting Canadian Communications Change and Regulatory Implications.” Many of the news accounts of  the report were typically superficial, effective for looking for sensational headlines and forcing the CRTC Chair to issue a statement to respond.

One of the stories focused on so-called “skyrocketing” prices supposedly highlighted in the report. If you check out Figure 7 in the report, you will see that the prices don’t really seem to be “skyrocketing.” The overall CPI rose 13.3% from 2002 to 2008. Telecom services rose 5.7%, less than half the rate of inflation. Prices rising 5.7% over 6 years: help me understand the adjective, please. That’s a fizzled out kind of skyrocket, isn’t it?

Now, eyeballing Figure 7, you will notice that prices have been pretty flat, with an uptick in the final year. The statistician in me asks, what happened in that year? Well, followers of the CPI would know that in 2007, Statistics Canada updated the CPI, changing the base year to 2002 and it also updated the basket of goods to match consumer purchase patterns in 2005.

So the first point is that there is a discontinuity that needs to be examined and understood. Secondly, the CPI report from Statistics Canada is measuring a basket of services that does not necessarily align with current purchases. The current basket is 5 years old. An objective of the CPI is to match the goods and services that the average household buys, and adjust in order to understand like for like price changes. But certain goods and services are very different today from what was available 5 years ago.

Think about the challenge in comparing prices on computers – the purchase price may stay at $1000, but that buys a lot more of a machine today than it did in 2002. Today’s households buy a very different mix of telephone services than what they bought 6 years ago. That changing mix means prices for legacy services may have changed for all the right reasons as tastes and trends transition.

Cable and satellite rose 30% since 2002; double the CPI. Of course, let’s also be sure to take a look at what has happened to TV over that period. More channels, more digital, affordable big screen TVs (meaning more set top boxes per household), more HD, pay-per-view, on-demand, etc.

In other words, people are buying more TV services, perhaps because they want to and because they think it is worth the price, especially compared to other entertainment choices in a tough economy.

It is easy to look at numbers; it is a lot tougher to understand them, draw conclusions and develop policy based on the data.

Early bird prices expire at the end of February for The 2010 Canadian Telecom Summit. Sessions at the event will explore all of the issues affecting Canadian Telecommunications. Register today for The Canadian Telecom Summit.

As many Canadians are looking back second guessing and bemoaning at the decision to prorogue parliament, I’d prefer to look forward and ask what will be on the agenda for the next session of Parliament. When the speech from the Throne is delivered, will the government set out a bold vision for Canada’s digital future?

Over the past few years, various panels have delivered reports examining communications and competition policy. Numerous voices, including our own, have called for the creation of national digital strategy.

South of the border, the FCC has been charged with the responsibility to develop a bold vision for the US. Under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the FCC has been tasked with creating a National Broadband Plan that

shall seek to ensure all people of the United States have access to broadband capability and shall establish benchmarks for meeting that goal.

Can a government – in Canada or the US – set out a vision that is bold, yet affordable, while creating sustainable leadership for the benefit of a next generation economy?

On the afternoon panels of Tuesday, June 8, 2010 The 2010 Canadian Telecom Summit will explore ICT strategies around the world and host a discussion on the elements of Canada’s own National Digital Strategy.

Have you registered yet?

Recent press releases and advertisements speak about the high percentage of Canada’s population that has access to new advanced mobile wireless services.

I think it is remarkable that such a substantial majority of Canadians, close to 95% of us, fall within the HSPA and HSPA+ coverage. Looking at the competing network maps, we can see that most Canadians are already able to choose between multiple carriers for mobile voice and data services offering speeds that rival and often beat wireline access.

But a closer examination of the maps shows that, while the majority of the population is covered by mobile wireless networks, there is a vast part of the country that is beyond the reach of terrestrial towers.

About 2M Canadians live and work outside the coverage, and many other Canadians sometimes venture out of their urban and suburban comfort zones to go play.

On September 11, 2009, Rick Stephens and his hunting partner, Trent Bossence, were 7 days into a 12-day hunting trip in the Coast Mountain Range of Northern British Columbia. They were 85 miles from the nearest town, Dease Lake and four miles from their base camp, when Rick’s hunting knife slipped and he cut his leg just below the knee, severing a tendon.

We tried to treat my injury and prepare for what we thought would be a long cold night on the mountain. But I happened to have a SPOT Satellite Personal Tracker so Trent was able to instantly send a 9-1-1 message and our GPS location coordinates.

Within 2½ hours of the signal being sent, the rescue team located Stephens and his partner and airlifted them off the mountain. Since it was introduced, the SPOT Satellite Personal Tracker has initiated more than 450 rescues and sent over 10 million check-in and tracking messages around the world.

I have written before about satellite as an important part of the solution for universal broadband service for Canadians in their homes and offices to Canadians who are beyond the reach of terrestrial networks.

Similarly, Globalstar‘s SPOT tracker enables a mobile lifeline for people who venture off the beaten track. The device itself is affordable and its service subscription is only $100 per year.

With Christmas a month away, this look like a perfect gift for camping, hunting and hiking enthusiasts. I suspect that those who have boats in cottage country might consider this as part of our on-board safety equipment.

For months now, I have been writing about the disturbing lack of context in respect of some reports examining the state of Canada’s telecommunications industry, especially those that have cited various OECD studies released over the past few months.

As I wrote in June, it has become increasingly clear that the OECD’s analysis is flawed.

The failure by so many to analyse the data appears to confirm what President Barack Obama said recently in a newspaper interview:

I am concerned that if the direction of the news is all blogosphere, all opinions, with no serious fact-checking, no serious attempts to put stories in context, that what you will end up getting is people shouting at each other across the void but not a lot of mutual understanding.

Countless statistics and rankings have been developed regarding the state of broadband networks in countries around the world. Yet, the sum total of all this work may have clouded the issues and caused confusion among policymakers and other stakeholders.

Canada is no exception. While some paint a picture of crisis, others argue that Canada has enviable broadband infrastructure and is well-positioned for the future, despite facing unique geographic challenges.

One matter that is uncontested is that the stakes are high. Countries around the world see information and communication technologies (ICTs) like broadband as key to their economic futures. In Canada, as in other countries, these issues are important to the economic present as well. Canadian telcos, cablecos and wireless providers invest between $8B and $10B each year in advanced communications infrastructure. These investments support $54B in revenues and provide jobs to more than 140 thousand Canadians.

ICT policy sets an enabling foundation for Canada’s participation in a global knowledge-based economy.

A group representing Canada’s largest internet service providers commissioned my firm to study the issue. Today, we are releasing our report [pdf, 944KB] that seeks to clarify the facts, dispel myths and provide the analysis needed to constructively move the issues forward and facilitate a more informed debate.

The report concludes that Canadians benefit from a robust, diversified broadband infrastructure. All Canadians who want to subscribe and pay for broadband can obtain service. We have 100% availability when you consider all the technology choices available. The vast majority of Canadians benefit from a world-leading level of choice in access to broadband technologies, using twisted pair, coaxial cable, wireless (fixed and mobile) and satellite.

Moreover, Canadians have access to some of the most affordable services, while also benefiting from some of the world’s fastest connection speeds for both wireline and wireless broadband services.

In terms of adoption, Canada continues to lead all G-8 countries in adoption of internet services, and ranks in the top ten for most international comparisons on broadband penetration and speeds, contradicting last week’s student project from the Said School of Business at Oxford.

With almost 70% of Canadian households already subscribing, there remains a significant opportunity to expand broadband adoption even further.

The report recommends:

• As we go through the process of developing a national ICT strategy, recognize the true state of Canada’s ICT infrastructure
• Continue policies focused on fostering facilities-based competition
• Build on the past success of private sector investment by removing current policy and regulatory uncertainty regarding investments in next-generation networks
• Shift more attention to adoption issues (including adoption of next-generation services) and encourage socio-economic research focused on better understanding the obstacles to, and inhibitors of, broadband adoption
• Consider programmes to improve digital literacy and the use of incentives (tax-based or otherwise) to target and overcome any barriers to broadband adoption

You may download the complete report here [ pdf, 944KB]. It provides the context to enable a better understanding and discussion of the issues for expanding broadband in Canada.

Garbage in, garbage out. The GIGO factor.

That is how the OECD reporting on Canadian broadband has to be characterized. The same faulty study that we have talked about all summer [such as here, here and here] keeps getting cited as evidence of a supposedly shameful situation for Canadians on the internet. Some have used the flawed reporting to conclude that our industry is in crisis.

Never mind that Google’s global sales president says that Canada has world-class internet and broadband penetration.

The latest woeful citation (in the Globe and Mail Datebook) was one that should have had the writer pause to think about plain reasonableness:

Today’s chart lists the 30 countries and shows Canadians paid about $95 (Canadian) every month for high-speed Web access in September of 2008.

Do you know anyone who is paying $95 every month for high-speed Web access? Seriously. You might have one or two geeky friends who are subscribing to the very highest speed service, but does that quote sound like a fair representation of the Canadian high-speed broadband market?

Suzanne Blackwell at Giganomics Consulting has more details about the flaws in the report.