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As I was marking these days of reflection in the Jewish calendar, I found myself asking, where is the vision for Canada’s national digital strategy?

Sure, there is a Digital Charter, a pronouncement heavy on market intervention, following the tradition theme of “Tax it, regulate it, subsidize it”. But, the Digital Charter is light on how we drive increased national productivity. Where is the strategic vision?

When I look at the official mandate for the responsible federal agency, I read “Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada’s (ISED) mission is to foster a growing, competitive and knowledge-based Canadian economy.” The department says its “raison d’être” is to work “with Canadians in all areas of the economy and in all parts of the country to improve conditions for investment, enhance Canada’s innovation performance, increase Canada’s share of global trade, and build a fair, efficient and competitive marketplace.”

It sounds good so far, but what is the strategy to achieve these bold objectives? It is somewhat trite to say that the department’s “raison d’être” – its very reason for being – is to improve investment conditions, enhance innovation performance, and build a fair, efficient and competitive marketplace.

How does the department plan to do that? Indeed, considering the current government has been in power for 9 years, how did the department plan to do that? Where is the strategy that has been guiding them?

Regulation in the absence of an overall strategic vision can be harmful. In rejecting Senate Bill 1047, the AI safety legislation, California Governor Gavin Newsom wrote: “Given the stakes – protecting against actual threats without unnecessarily thwarting the promise of this technology to advance the public good – we must get this right.” Arguments were made that the provisions of SB 1047 are too broad and could stifle innovation, and could hinder AI’s development itself.

I took a look at ISED’s Plans and Reports web page. There is a link to a “Science and Technology Strategy” and another link to “Canada’s S&T strategy”. The “Science and Technology Strategy” page is now archived. It dates back to the 2007, when the Conservatives were in power. The “Canada’s S&T strategy” also dates back to the Conservative era, publishing a report in 2014 (“Seizing Canada’s Moment: Moving Forward in Science, Technology and Innovation 2014”), and launching a consultation (“Developing a Digital Research Infrastructure Strategy”). The Digital Charter sets out 10 principles. Are we doing enough to tie these to the departmental raison d’être, to “improve investment conditions, enhance innovation performance, and build a fair, efficient and competitive marketplace.”

A lot of these government consultations produce reports that sit on shelves. But, isn’t it helpful to have a somewhat official strategy point of reference to guide the development of more specific objectives and tactics? When handing out billions of dollars in government subsidies, shouldn’t the Minister be able to point to a strategy document to justify certain priorities over others?

This isn’t the first time that I have come back from Rosh Hashana with broad policy reflections. Three years ago, I wrote “How did we get here? How do we move forward?” and wrote:

So, how did we get here?

A number of years ago, in “Digging ditches and digital policy”, I cited a paper from the Institute for Research in Public Policy that said “Like other countries, Canada is once again engaging actively and more openly in industrial policy. In fact, it has a profusion of industrial policies, what it lacks is a strategy.”

No clear strategy. No clear objectives. No scorecard for measuring progress.

What are we trying to accomplish? How do we measure success? As I have said many times [here and here], I would like to see us start with clear objectives: “Set clear objectives. Align activities with the achievement of those objectives. Stop doing things that are contrary to the objectives.”

How do we celebrate success in digital policy, if we aren’t clear about what we are trying to do?

How do we move forward?

If we want to create appropriate incentives for private sector investment, we can’t keep changing the rules (see: Calvinball). A recent essay on The Hub asks “what incentives do firms have to incur the risk and costs of investment in new network infrastructure if the government can later unilaterally grant access to their competitors at rates determined by regulators?” As the authors write, “The goal should be to create the conditions for investment, innovation, and technological development rather than micromanage the market to produce a particular number of market participants.”

Set clear objectives. Align activities with the achievement of those objectives. Stop doing things that are contrary to those objectives.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about competing visions for a digital future being laid out in the US. Where is the competing vision from His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition, Canada’s apparent government-in-waiting?

At some point, the Opposition Critics have become known as Shadow Ministers. Being a critic is important in a Westminister-style government. It is their role to hold the Minister to account. But, it is a lot easier to criticize than to develop policy and strategies from scratch. A Canadian election is coming at some point in the next year, and all signs point to a Conservative majority. Casting stones is a lot easier than gathering them together to build something. It’s even harder to build something that will endure.

For the past 9 years in opposition, we have heard what the Conservatives won’t do. It is time to transition from critics to leadership. Where is the vision for Canada’s digital future?

I have frequently written about government keeping out of the way. The phrase “out of the way” appears in about 25 of my posts.

Twice, I used the same title, “Getting out of the way” [2012, 2016]. Earlier this year, in “Let the marketplace work”, I describe government policies and regulations inhibiting capital investment by the telecom sector.

So, it was with interest that I read a recent article on “The Hub”, “Want to be a more productive country, Canada? Get the government roadblocks out of the way” by Jerome Gessaroli. He says “policies relying on government intervention to replace the free market seldom produce improved growth and productivity.” His article includes 4 policy recommendations relating to government maintaining a smaller economic footprint.

Mario Draghi’s newly released report for the European Union, “The future of European competitiveness” [Part A (A competitiveness strategy for Europe) pdf, 3.4MB | Part B (In-depth analysis and recommendations) pdf, 11.5MB], cites “inconsistent and restrictive regulations” among the hindrances for innovative company growth. The report calls for reducing the regulatory burden imposed on European companies. “More than half of SMEs in Europe flag regulatory obstacles and the administrative burden as their greatest challenge.” According to the report, “Regulation is seen by more than 60% of EU companies as an obstacle to investment”.

In other words, I’m not alone in wanting government to stay out of the way.

A few years ago, I quoted Ronald Reagan’s 1986 remarks to the National White House Conference on Small Business. “Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.”

That approach gives the appearance of government doing something, but rarely achieves a positive long-term outcome. It seems to be where Canada is heading with its legislation on the digital economy. The Online News Act and Online Streaming Act already drove unintended consequences, as predicted. In addition, Canada is risking a trade dispute with the US over its approach to taxing digital services.

It is so very tempting to intervene in the marketplace. It takes much stronger leadership to trust in the power of competitive markets. Look at the telecom market. Canada ensured there are 4 well-capitalized facilities-based wireless service providers operating in most of the country, including all population centres. These service providers have sufficient spectrum and technology to compete in both mobile and fixed markets.

Continued regulatory intervention in the marketplace threatens to return Canadian telecom to the haphazard Calvinball era of a decade ago. Such an environment discourages investment, precisely the opposite of what is needed to drive productivity.

Government needs to try a new approach. Stand aside.

The public interest for telecommunications is multi-dimensional. Although some lobbyists seem to focus solely on lower prices, government policy needs to balance other factors, like investment in increased coverage, new technology and services, and quality.

Last Thursday, when Minister François-Philippe Champagne announced a new policy direction, there were 3 “associated links” in the press release:

• Order Issuing a Direction to the CRTC on a Renewed Approach to Telecommunications Policy
• Backgrounder: Summary of the Government of Canada’s new proposed policy direction to the CRTC
• Backgrounder: Renewing Canada’s approach to Telecommunications Policy: Context for Action

Much of the focus of media coverage was on the proposed Policy Direction as well as the disposition of the wholesale rates appeal:

We recognize the important balance that must be achieved between the need to invest in our networks and the need to promote continued competition and affordability. The wholesale rates decision made by the CRTC in 2021 is an attempt to correct errors made in 2019, and it makes permanent the rates that have been in force since 2016. The decision provides stability, and the government has determined that it will not alter this decision.

My initial impressions were captured in a blog post, “A new direction for Canadian telecom”.

I noticed that many of the news articles cited language that appeared in the Policy Direction Backgrounder, as opposed to the more moderate language found in the actual draft Order.

There seemed to be less attention on the Context Backgrounder, and as has become usual, that is where I like to focus.

I have talked about a theme of balance that I think continues from Minister Navdeep Bains era 5 years ago, balancing Quality, Coverage And Affordable Prices. A few weeks ago, I observed, “In its rejection of an appeal on the CRTC’s Review of Wireless Services, just last month Cabinet said: “the Governor in Council considers that the Commission’s decision appropriately balances investment incentives to build and upgrade networks, and sustainable competition and the availability of affordable mobile wireless prices for consumers”.”

Nearly two years ago, Minister Bains said Canada’s Future Depends on Connectivity. Generally, last week’s telecom policy announcement promises a framework that continues to balance consumer interests, including the incentives for service providers to make investments that deliver quality services, available to all Canadians.

Policy consistency is important. The context backgrounder leads with details of how these policies have delivered benefits for Canadian consumers:

Canada has benefited from very high investment levels over time, with the private sector investing $11.4 billion in 2020. Canada has consistently been above the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) average. For example, in Canada the share of telecommunications revenues invested in capital expenditures over time was 30-50% above the OECD average. This has led to high quality telecommunications networks. For example, according to Ookla’s March 2022 Global SpeedTest, Canada ranked 16th out of 142 countries for median mobile speeds, ahead of all members of the G7, and 17th out of 182 countries for median fixed broadband speeds ahead of all members of the G7, except the USA and Japan.

When it comes to the household availability of full fibre networks, in 2020 the household coverage in Canada (49%) was ahead of the US (42%), Australia (16%), UK (18%), Germany (11%), and Italy (34%) and the EU average of 43%. Similarly, when factoring in cable networks, coverage of the faster speeds of 100 Mbps and 1 Gbps are available to 87% and 76% of homes compared to 76% and 51% in European Union countries. Data from OpenSignal shows strong speeds for new Fifth generation (5G) services with Canada ranking 4th in 2021, strong historical coverage of 4G services, and for more specialized application metrics Canadian operators were not among global leaders but above the sample average. Fibre and new 5G services continue to roll out and ongoing investments will ensure Canadians benefit from these and future technologies as they are introduced and deployed.

The subsequent paragraphs, talking about rural service gaps, demonstrate an understanding and appreciation of the challenging aspects of business cases to build in parts of Canada.

The background document provides a market overview and helps to understand the context in which policies are being formed, “promoting more competition, universal access and a more consumer-oriented telecommunications sector in Canada.”

Minister Champagne said “We recognize the important balance that must be achieved between the need to invest in our networks and the need to promote continued competition and affordability.”

This reference to balance, coupled with the Policy Direction’s requirement for predictability, provide important messages of policy consistency.

Have we seen the end of Calvinball in Canadian telecom regulation?

In its recent rejection of a Cabinet appeal of the CRTC’s Review of Wireless Services, Canada has maintained consistency in its approach to telecom policy, balancing the often competing objectives of extending the reach of networks, delivering world-leading service quality, and affordable prices.

We read “the Governor in Council considers that the Commission’s decision appropriately balances investment incentives to build and upgrade networks, and sustainable competition and the availability of affordable mobile wireless prices for consumers”.

It hasn’t always been that way. Over the past ten years, I have referred to Canada’s telecom policy environment as being like “Calvinball” at least a dozen times. “The only permanent rule in Calvinball is that you can’t play it the same way twice.”

That is hardly the way to provide policy leadership for an economic segment at the core of the digital economy.

In a dissenting opinion a few years ago, former CRTC Commissioner Candace Molnar wrote “Citizens and regulated entities alike deserve a Commission that is fair, predictable, and transparent.”

In upholding the CRTC’s decision, the determination was consistent with an Order in Council from August 2020, which declared, “Canada’s Future Depends On Connectivity”.

At that time, Cabinet said:

On the basis of its review, the Governor in Council considers that the rates do not, in all instances, appropriately balance the policy objectives of the wholesale services framework and is concerned that these rates may undermine investment in high-quality networks, particularly in rural and remote areas. Retroactive payments to affected wholesale clients are appropriate in principle and can foster cooperation in regulatory proceedings. However, these payments, which reflect the rates, must be balanced so as not to stifle network investments. Incentives for ongoing investment, particularly to foster enhanced connectivity for those who are unserved or underserved, are a critical objective of the overall policies governing telecommunications, including these wholesale rates.

Recall that CRTC Chair Ian Scott’s welcome letter, the Ministers of Heritage and of Innovation, Science and Economic Development said “The Government’s objectives are to improve the quality, coverage, and price of services.” At the time, I wrote “It is a delicate balance. Quality and coverage require significant levels of capital investment, especially in a country like Canada.”

Consistency in policy and regulation is critical for the investment community. “Citizens and regulated entities alike deserve a Commission that is fair, predictable, and transparent.”

Canadian telecom policy appears to be clear. Canada’s future depends on connectivity.

Despite mobile industry prices that have fallen more than 30% over the course of the past summer, Innovation, Science and Industry Minister Navdeep Bains is looking for further reductions of another 25%, warning “If these targets are not met within two years, the Government will take action with other regulatory tools to further increase competition and help reduce prices.”

During last year’s election campaign, the Liberal party promised 25% reductions in mobile prices and it showed sample rate plans of $87.32 for a 5 GB plan and $75.44 for a 2 GB plan. The party promised to bring those rates down to $65.49 and $56.58 (respectively), when elected.

But in an announcement today, Minister Bains said that the January 2020 market prices for a 6 GB plan are $60, and $50 for a 2 GB plan, more than 10% lower than the campaign targets.

Rather than claiming victory, the Minister has announced new targets of a further 25% price reduction over the next two years. The Minister has set a target of $37.50 for the 2 GB mobile plan, more than 50% reduction in the price, when compared to the Liberal’s campaign promise.

In a note to investors earlier in the day, TD Securities Equity Research wrote: “our view is that much of the testimony at the [CRTC’s Wireless Review] hearing proved that pricing in Canada is very reasonable relative to excess geographic and spectrum costs incurred by wireless carriers in Canada. Subsequent to heavy efforts by the government to facilitate competitive tension from facilities-based new entrants in every region, we struggle to see a problem that needs to be fixed.”

We agree. The CRTC is in the midst of its review of mobile services. The intervention in the marketplace smacks of playing a populist political card at the expense of policy leadership.

With billions of dollars in funding needed for 5G network upgrades, rural expansion and targeted connectivity programs for low income households, global capital markets will be looking for more consistency from Canada’s regulatory and policy leaders.

In an environment of already turbulent global capital markets, the last thing Canada should be doing is playing Calvinball with its telecom sector.