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Climbing the ladder of investment

I am going to take a little vacation time over the next couple weeks, so while I am gone, I thought I would provide a collection of quotations that I think are relevant for a couple hot regulatory issues these days: the state of Canada’s mobile wireless industry and the appeals associated with wireline wholesale.

As noted by the 2006 Telecom Policy Review Panel, the CRTC originally encouraged competition via resale through various rulings that “established a general policy requiring an incumbent who chose to offer a retail telecommunications service to permit resale of that service, whether by competitors or others.” When the CRTC approved facilities-based competition in 1992, “it did so recognizing that the construction of network facilities by entrants was necessary for the full benefits of competitive entry to be realized.”

Have those fundamental principles changed?

From Telecom Decision CRTC 92-12:

The Commission considers that resale can provide many benefits, but it is not a substitute for facilities-based entry. Facilities-based entry permits sustainable and more broadly-based competition, thereby increasing the benefits to be derived from competition.

However, resellers can complement facilities-based competition by providing price discipline, ensuring greater responsiveness and serving niche markets.

Testimony of Marc Gaudrault, CRTC Notice of Consultation 2009-261, Transcript 31 May 2010, Line 926:

In order for the ladder of investment to work most effectively, the wholesale services provided by ILECs and cable carriers at each rung of the ladder should be constructed so as to facilitate the maximum amount of service differentiation downstream at the retail level and the ability of competitors to climb the ladder. This means differentiation of functional attributes such as speed, throughput, quality and types of service, geographic coverage and service bundling.

From the report of the Telecom Policy Review Panel:

The Proper Scope of Mandated Wholesale Access
As stated above, a fundamental objective of mandated wholesale access should be to maintain incentives for innovation, network efficiency and investment. In the Panel’s view, the most effective method for promoting these incentives is to ensure that competitive market forces apply to the broadest possible range of network and service components in as many locations as economically feasible.

To this end, new entrants should have both opportunities and incentives to build their own facilities. Since by definition retail market entry is not possible without competitor access to essential facilities, the regulatory framework should continue to require incumbents to make these available, on a mandatory basis if necessary.

However, the Panel concludes that, given the current state of competition in Canada, continuing to require that incumbents make non-essential facilities available to competitors undermines the incentives for the latter to build alternative facilities. This in turn undermines competitive market incentives for all service providers to be efficient, to innovate and to invest, for several reasons.

First, when designing their networks, entrants can either build non-essential facilities or lease them from the incumbent. Mandated wholesale access at regulated prices reduces the cost and especially the risks associated with leasing relative to building. It thus increases the likelihood that leasing will be more attractive than building. Mandated wholesale access therefore tends to discourage entrants from supplying their own facilities, even where doing so would otherwise be economical. The potential negative impact is much more limited if mandated wholesale access is limited to essential facilities.

Second, regulated wholesale pricing reduces the revenues that entrants who build facilities can generate in the wholesale market when they lease those facilities to other providers. This arises because regulatory constraints on ILEC wholesale prices also effectively place upper limits on the price that other service providers can charge for facilities in the wholesale market. This in turn affects investment decisions of both incumbents and new entrants in cases where the viability of constructing network facilities is dependent on their ability to profitably supply facilities on a wholesale basis to other service providers. The broader the scope of mandated access, the greater the negative impact on investment decisions.

Third, artificially low wholesale rates undermine the price levels and revenues that could otherwise be sustained in the retail market. The broader the scope of mandated access, the more significant the impact on retail prices. This compromises the ability of both entrants and incumbents to recover potential network investments.

The argument in support of mandating the availability of non-essential facilities is that it can actually facilitate, rather than hamper, construction of facilities by entrants by providing them with a “stepping-stone” until the day they can build their own facilities. The validity of this argument rests entirely on the assumption that the CRTC can set prices that are both:

  • low enough to facilitate entrants’ ability to expand their networks and more quickly acquire the customer base that would justify construction of their own facilities
  • high enough to provide entrants with sufficient incentives to build such facilities.

The Petition to the Governor in Council procedure: Canada’s wholesale broadband policies, the appeal mechanisms that challenge them, and broader regulatory trajectories
Daniel Mackwood, 2016 Paper
CRTC Prize for Excellence in Policy Research

CRTC decision hearing outcomes have regularly supported wholesale competition in the fixed access broadband market. The agency’s ongoing aim has been for its regulatory decisions to help usher new-entrant and competitor ISPs into an eventual transition from service- to facilities-based competition. Referred to as the “ladder of investment” (LOI) or the “stepping-stone” approach, this regulatory strategy encourages an evolution from ISPs existing as wholesale access customers relying on tariffed usage of incumbents’ networks, to eventually being able to invest in and maintain their own facilities and infrastructure.

The CRTC is in the midst of a proceeding reviewing mobile wireless services in Canada, focusing on three areas: Competition in the retail market; The current wholesale mobile wireless service regulatory framework, with a focus on wholesale MVNO access; and, The future of mobile wireless services in Canada, with a focus on reducing barriers to infrastructure deployment.

It isn’t yet clear there is a justification to mandate wholesale access services for the mobile wireless market. That is the first gate.

Missing from the historical documents (cited above) is a discussion of the need to preserve appropriate incentives for facilities-based service providers to invest in network expansion in terms of reach and capacity.

Should there be a third principle in setting wholesale prices? Perhaps wholesale rates need to be:

  • low enough to facilitate entrants’ ability to expand their networks and more quickly acquire the customer base that would justify construction of their own facilities
  • high enough to provide entrants with sufficient incentives to build such facilities
  • structured in a manner that encourages incumbents to expand capacity and reach for their own network facilities.

I will have spotty internet access for the next 10 days or so, a reminder that not every country has coverage as good as Canada; I look forward to reading your comments.

Competing opinions

Bernard Baruch is credited with the coining the statement “Every man has a right to an opinion but no man has a right to be wrong in his facts.”

Important phrase to keep in mind as I read competing opinion pieces: Timothy Denton in the Financial Post and Dr. Robert Crandall in Cartt.ca.

Tim is a former CRTC commissioner and his piece was authored to respond to an opinion piece by Gael Campan of The MEI in support of its recent research paper (the subject of last week’s blog post “Permissionless innovation: is regulation penalizing infrastructure investments?”. Mr. Denton’s clients include Tucows, the parent of Ting, a company that has been trying to get the CRTC to mandate MVNOs.

Dr. Robert Crandall is is a senior fellow at the Technology Policy Institute, a Washington-based think tank that focuses on the economics of innovation, technological change, and related regulation around the world. Dr. Crandall has taught economics at Northwestern University, MIT, the University of Maryland, George Washington University, and the Stanford in Washington program. His opinion piece is based on data in The Inclusive Internet Index 2019, a study by the Intelligence Unit of The Economist. He has prepared evidence for TELUS in the CRTC’s review of mobile wireless services.

Now in its third year, the index assesses the performance of 100 countries in four categories of inclusion: Accessibility, Affordability, Relevance and Readiness. Each category incorporates key indicators of internet inclusion, including quantitative measures such as network coverage and pricing, and qualitative measures such as the presence of e-inclusion policies and the availability of local-language content.

Mr. Denton’s piece is titled “Some truths about why Canada’s cellphone bills are higher and our adoption rate lower than most OECD countries” but it actually mixes up a lot of facts confusing European regulatory obligations for wireline services (that we also have in Canada) in his discussion of what he (or his clients) think should be imposed for wireless. Like the discredited consultant report from Rewheel, Mr. Denton tries to compare Canada’s mobile service to Finland (“with their vast regions as empty as Canada”), failing to consider that Finland’s population density is 5 times that of Canada. He also refers to wireless penetration using the familiar, but invalid metric “SIM cards per capita”, as though it is a good thing for people to have to carry multiple subscriptions (and forgetting to consider that also means people are paying multiple bills). When looking at unique subscribers, Canada’s figure of 78% is in line with the US (85%) and Europe (86%).

The fact is, Canadians enjoy superior quality network performance, thanks in part to carriers’ capital investment per connection that is nearly double the average of their European counterparts. As Dr. Crandall observes, “Canada has among the highest spectrum prices in the developed world because of these policies, thereby increasing wireless carrier costs and, thus, wireless prices.”

We are entitled to our own competing opinions. But those opinions should be informed by facts.

The cost of spectrum policy

“High spectrum prices can cause negative consumer outcomes, including lower coverage levels and slower data speeds.”

That’s just one of the findings of a new report released last week, by the GSMA. The report, “The impact of spectrum prices on consumers” [pdf], shows that countries with poor spectrum policies – policies which either inflate spectrum or delay spectrum assignments – are leading to millions of people being left unable to access mobile broadband services or experiencing reduced network quality.

The study is said to be the most detailed econometric study into spectrum pricing, considering more countries (64, including both developed and developing), more consumer outcomes (cost, quality and coverage) and the study controls for a wider range of other potential explanations for these outcomes, such as market competition, population density, timing of spectrum awards among others. “These findings have important ramifications for regulators, particularly when so many are trying to prioritise improved coverage and increased investment in 4G and 5G.”

The study provides the following recommendations:

  1. Maximising revenues from spectrum awards should no longer be a measure of success
  2. Auctions can deliver inefficient outcomes when poorly designed
  3. Artificially limiting the supply of spectrum, including through set-asides, risks slowing services and inflating prices
  4. Spectrum should be released to the market as soon as there is a business case for operators to use it
  5. Policymakers should work with stakeholders to enable timely, fair and effective spectrum licensing to the benefit of society

The use of set-asides have been contentious in recent Canadian spectrum auctions. The study observes that “Governments often design awards with the intention of promoting competition and innovation in the sector – for example set-asides or reserved spectrum for a new entrant (or existing operator).”

However, the report says “While such policies may be designed with the right objectives in mind, they may also have unintended consequences if they are poorly designed or implemented and result in higher spectrum prices, thus harming consumers.”

There is a cost associated with spectrum policy, not all of which is financial. As Canada moves forward with development of auction policy for the next wave of spectrum, it is critical to consider the potential for unintended consequences to have significant impact on consumers.

#CTS19: The closing keynote address

Over the coming weeks, I will post some of the sessions from The 2019 Canadian Telecom Summit. Today’s post is the first in the series.

On June 5, the closing keynote address at The 2019 Canadian Telecom Summit was delivered by Innovation, Science and Economic Development Minister Navdeep Bains. Following his speech, I had a chance to sit down and have a chat with him, as captured in the video.

Here are his remarks. Please check against delivery:

Thank you very much, Katherine, for the kind introduction, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It really is a delight to be here again at the Telecom Summit. And I was just speaking with Mark earlier before. It’s three years in a row, and it really is a testament to this incredible Summit and it really is a reflection of the fact that our government believes in the future of the telecommunications sector and what it means to the Canadian economy.

And I can tell you right now and all of us understand and appreciate this from our own experiences, that the telecommunications sector is one that touches Canadians every day, not just delivering laughs and tears to our living rooms, but also business opportunities, innovation and livelihoods to our communities.

It’s no secret that this is an election year, so I feel like I should report on something I committed to when I was here in 2017. I said my priorities would be to improve the coverage, quality, and price of telecommunications services for Canadians.

J’avais mentionnĂ© que mes prioritĂ©s Ă©taient d’amĂ©liorer la couverture, la qualitĂ©, et surtout les prix des tĂ©lĂ©communications pour les Canadiens.

Let’s start with quality: I think we can all agree that 5G is a game changer. We also envision that 5G will be a massive job creator, and an economic driver—expected to add 40 billion dollars annually to our economy by 2026. Our Government is embarking on a long-term vision to position Canada as a global leader so that future generations of Canadians will always benefit from the best technologies the world has to offer.

Last year, I stood here and outlined my department’s spectrum outlook for 2018 to 2022. Today, I’m pleased to report that we’re right on track.

Last year we announced a $66.7 million investment in the $400 million ENCQOR 5G project. Today, thanks to this investment and collaboration, small and medium-sized businesses are able to access research and technology to help them innovate and create jobs.

Earlier this year, we committed nearly 200 million dollars over 5 years to modernize spectrum equipment so that our networks stay world class. And today we have more good news to share with you.

We will be publishing two decisions and a consultation at 4:00 today that support our commitment to helping industry roll out 5G services. These include a decision on changes to the 3500 MHz band, along with a consultation on the auction rules for 2020. We have also decided to make over 7 GHz of millimeter wave spectrum available for licence-exempt use this year, and another 4.85 GHz for licensed use in 2021. Finally, we are proposing to auction additional 5G spectrum in the 3800 MHz band in 2022.

All these measures — the millimetre wave and 3500 and 3800 bands — will allow our telecom providers to provide 5G services to Canadians in a timely manner.

I also want to reassure you that today’s decisions reflect our government’s strong determination to ensuring rural Canadians can fully participate in the digital economy.

Je veux aussi vous rassurer au sujet de notre engagement envers les canadiens des rĂ©gions rurales. Nous sommes dĂ©terminĂ©s Ă  ce qu’ils puissent participer pleinement Ă  l’économie numĂ©rique.

Which brings me to the issue of coverage.

We simply cannot afford to have a digital economy and society that leaves some of us behind. That’s why I’m happy to report we’re making important progress.

Just recently, we concluded the 600 megahertz auction. We were very happy with the number of regional carriers who won licenses. This will improve coverage in both rural and urban areas.

I am also very happy that on Monday, Ian Scott, Chair of the CRTC, announced the call for applications for its $750 million dollar Broadband fund.

To further help Canadians in rural areas, we also made an ambitious new nationwide broadband commitment this year. In Budget 2019, we committed to every single household and business in Canada having access to high-speed Internet by 2030. Working with provinces, territories, and industry, our Government is planning to deliver $5 to $6 billion in new investments to achieve this target. This will build upon the success of the Connect to Innovate program, which will bring high-speed Internet to more than 900 rural and remote communities, including 190 Indigenous communities.

Finally, last Fall, we announced the Accelerated Investment Incentive for investments made in fibre connectivity, wireless service and broadband infrastructure, that will particularly benefit more remote communities.

Cette semaine, ma collĂšgue, la nouvelle ministre du dĂ©veloppement Ă©conomique rural va rencontrer ses homologues provinciaux et territoriaux responsables de l’internet haute-vitesse, pour parler de collaboration autour de la stratĂ©gie nationale de connectivitĂ©.

We have also been listening to the millions of Canadians who have been sending us a message loud and clear. They need more affordable Internet and cellphone plans.

Nous avons Ă©coutĂ© les commentaires des milliers de Canadiens qui nous ont Ă©crit, et ils ont Ă©tĂ© trĂšs clairs. Ils ont besoin de services de tĂ©lĂ©phonie et d’internet plus abordables.

We know that in areas where there is strong regional competition, prices are up to 33% cheaper. That’s why we are pleased that regional providers more than doubled their share of 600 MHz spectrum following our auction which ended in April. Competition is the best way to lower internet and cell phone plans for Canadians, but it’s not the only one.

La compĂ©tition est un des meilleurs moyens de faire baisser les prix, mais ce n’est pas le seul moyen.

Through our Connecting Families initiative we have so far provided $10 per month Internet to 20,000 low-income families and over 25,000 refurbished computers to households that need them most.

We are not taking our foot off the pedal.

I will say the same thing here I’ve told you folks in meetings: I will be hot on the heels of all of you until Canadians have access to cell phone and internet connections at more affordable prices.

Just a few months ago, we proposed a policy direction that would require the CRTC to consider competition, affordability, consumer interests and innovation. After announcing this, we received 60,000 letters of support from ordinary Canadians – an overwhelming indication of broad public support. And we’ve heard the industry’s concerns around the value of their investments. And we’ve heard the industry’s concerns. Your investments will continue to be valued. We didn’t build some of the world’s most advanced and efficient telecom networks by magic.

But we cannot ignore the fact that Canadians pay some of the highest prices in the world.

Over the long-term, the proposed new policy direction to the CRTC will help shape a more consumer-friendly telecommunications market in Canada.

And finally, we need to rebuild the trust of Canadians in the digital world they now live in.

Two weeks ago, I launched Canada’s new Digital Charter that will guide all government data and digital-related policies, programs and legislation. Its first principle is Universal Access—something everyone here can agree on.

In tomorrow’s highly competitive global and digital economy, we won’t be able to compete if half of us are left sitting on the bench. That’s why we must all work together to bring Canadians better and more affordable telecommunication services, wherever they are.

We have already come a long way, but there is much more we can and must do to give Canadians the best chance to participate, compete and benefit from the digital world we now all live in.

They deserve it. And together, we can do it.

Thank you very much. Merci

Maintaining incentives to invest

Much has been written about the proposed Policy Direction released last week by ISED Minister Bains to the CRTC, and the Commission’s subsequent Mobile Wireless Services Notice of Consultation.

My regular readers know that I like to cover these kinds of things from paths that are less traveled, trying to bring a fresh perspective. As such, I’d like to examine last week’s releases from the perspective of incentives to invest.

The term “investment” appears 13 times in the CRTC’s notice of consultation; it appears just once in the proposed Policy Direction, and that instance is in relation to “stimulate investment in research and development and in other intangible assets that support the offer and provision of telecommunications services.” However, the proposed Policy Direction also speaks about “innovation in telecommunications services, including new technologies and differentiated service offerings” and ensuring “affordable access to high quality telecommunications services is available.”

That kind of language needs to be contrasted with the CRTC’s consultation that speaks in terms of the need “to make significant investments in network infrastructure” for 5G. The Commission’s concern about maintaining incentives for continued capital investment is set out in the core of the proclamation for this proceeding:

  1. The Commission is hereby initiating a proceeding to review mobile wireless services in Canada. This proceeding will focus on three key areas:
    • Competition in the retail market
    • The current wholesale mobile wireless service regulatory framework, with a focus on wholesale MVNO access
    • The future of mobile wireless services in Canada, with a focus on reducing barriers to infrastructure deployment
  2. The scope of each of these issues is described in detail below. In addition, parties may raise other matters, issues, or proposals that are relevant to and appropriate for a broad policy review of mobile wireless services. The Commission’s focus in this proceeding is to ensure that its mobile wireless service regulatory framework facilitates sustainable competition that provides reasonable prices and innovative services, as well as continued investment in high-quality mobile wireless networks in all regions of the country.

I observed on Twitter last week that network investment frequently falls into 1 or more of the 3 C’s: Coverage, Capacity, or Capability.

Many carriers have focused their investments on coverage and capacity enhancements, adding reach to the networks to previously under-served regions and adding capacity to increase data connection speeds and relieve congestion. Most carriers have upgraded capabilities for most regions to enjoy access to advanced fourth generation technology and are readying to deploy 5G.

Mandated wholesale access has the potential to impact the business case for investment. Of course, in core urban areas, there are strong incentives to invest driven by competitive behaviour, where carriers will ensure that their networks are able to offer top speeds as part of their bragging rights. However, it is clear that the business case for such investments is not limitless, otherwise we would see 5 bars of LTE-Advanced everywhere in Canada.

So, we know that there are already certain areas with lower population densities that already cannot support a business case for some carriers to invest. Now, imagine that that the carrier will no longer be able assume the same level of retail revenues. What happens to the business case for those marginal areas? If potential revenues decrease, one would expect that fewer areas will be able to support a business case for enhanced levels of investment. People in under-served areas today should carefully consider whether mandated MVNO and lower retail prices will help or hinder their cause.

Recall that when the current CRTC Chair was welcomed to his job, he received a letter from the Ministers of Heritage and of Innovation, Science and Economic Development, saying, “All Canadians and Canadian businesses deserve high quality telecommunications services at affordable prices.” At the time, I wrote “It is a delicate balance. Quality and coverage require significant levels of capital investment, especially in a country like Canada.”

The proposed Policy Direction echoes that language in the clause suggesting that the CRTC should consider the extent its regulatory measures “ensure affordable access to high quality telecommunications services is available.”

The CRTC consultative process will most likely be informed by engineering economic analysis, assessing the potential impact on investment in marginal areas for coverage, capacity and enhanced capabilities.

Maintaining incentives for investment requires a delicate balance.

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