With the excitement surounding Bell’s acquisition of Aliant and the creation of a massive regional telecom income trust, I wonder if anyone at MTS is having second thoughts.
Almost exactly 2 years ago, on March 18 2004, John McLennan and Bill Fraser announced that income trusts make no sense in telecom and that was why MTS would abandon such a proposal in favour of the acquisition of Allstream. At the time, Bill Fraser said that acquiring Allstream gave shareholders all the benefits of an income trust.
Two years ago, Fraser went so far as saying it would be quite a stretch to find any executive in any telco in Canada to say that revenues and cash flows are predictable and stable enough to fit an income trust model. VoIP and competition coupled with regulatory uncertainty raised concerns of being capital constrained under an income trust structure.
At the time, Yellow Pages, Bell Nordiq and Amtelecom were the examples of Income Trusts that people pointed to In fairness to MTS, neither of the remote and rural operating companies had substantial sized cities like Winnipeg inside their operating territory to be direct comparables.
Still, a lot of MTS’ forecasted revenue increases and capital savings didn’t materialize and it is hard to see which shareholders actually received benefits. It sometimes seems that the main asset that Allstream brought was its $3B in tax losses.
At the time of the Allstream transaction, Fraser spoke of an income trust stock price of around $55 – the same as the reference price for Allstream deal. It just happens that $55 would be a dream for MTS today, which has been languishing closer to $40.
An income trust appears to be a more realistic option for regional carriers like MTS with the new plans for Aliant. Although Winnipeg is much larger than Halifax, the rest of Manitoba looks an awful lot like a flattened version of Atlantic Canada. And I’d take Winnipeg Goldeye over Nova lox any day of the week!
I wonder whether MTS is willing to take a fresh look at how to best unlock shareholder value in its asset base.
Is there anyone who would take Allstream off MTS’ hands to enable the rest of Manitoba to be gobbled up by the Bell Income Trust? If we see a relaxation of foreign ownership restrictions, Allstream could help a global player gain a national footprint at bargain prices.