It seems to me that many folks in our sector are sometimes guilty of extrapolating trends from too few data points.
We want to watch how our kids are using tools like instant messaging and file-sharing and gaming and social networking. But we need to keep next generation services really simple or really, really useful so they will actually migrate beyond the inner sanctum of ‘early adopters’ and hit the mainstream.
For example, Skype is an interesting application that is pulling away long distance revenues, but it isn’t replacing the telephone. I can’t use Skype while I’m cooking in the kitchen.
Go ahead and write to tell me how you have blue tooth ear-buds and set up your multi-media, Linux enabled home. That proves the point. The concern is what I call the Iridium syndrome: doing stuff because you can, regardless of the merits of the business case.
Like Jeff Pulver suggesting that American Idol should migrate from broadcast TV to the web. Sure, just tell the 58% of Americans without broadband service that we don’t care if they can’t watch; Jeff wants to broadcast American Idol that way to “create a tidal wave of epic proportions for other shows to follow”.
It sounds more like Iridium all over again.