Will cable companies avoid new markets?

In response to Monday’s regulatory relief announcement, a spokesman for Rogers speculated that some cable firms that had been planning to introduce local phone services in different cities might scrap the plans once they find out Bell and others will be able to undercut their rates right out of the gate, backstopped by their revenues from other sources. Speaking of the incumbent telcos, he said:

They don’t want to lower prices for customers generally. What they really want to do is pick off the customers that have gone over to the competition, call them the very next day, offer them $100, $200 if they come back, and that way they send a message to the new entrant saying don’t bother being aggressive

Is that a realistic scenario? Rogers and Shaw have been able to enjoy ‘disciplined pricing’ for their local phone services so far and both have grabbed sizable shares of the market in the regions in which they offer service.

Among the cable companies, Videotron has demonstrated aggressive pricing that still appears to deliver profitable returns.

In any case, the cable companies have been expecting forbearance for the ILECs anyway. The telcos are close to the 25% in many major markets. The incremental ARPU is likely too attractive to leave alone.

So what is behind the statement that smaller cable firms may avoid launching voice services altogether?

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Rogers, Shaw, Videotron