{"id":870,"date":"2007-06-21T20:34:00","date_gmt":"2007-06-21T20:34:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/?p=870"},"modified":"2007-06-21T20:34:00","modified_gmt":"2007-06-21T20:34:00","slug":"whats-really-going-on-with-bell-and-telus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/?p=870","title":{"rendered":"What’s really going on with Bell and TELUS?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Bellus\"Who thinks that TELUS and Bell can combine without having to spin out lots of assets?<\/p>\n

I disagree with Greg O’Brien’s assessment in CARTT<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Using year-end 2006 figures, a “Bellus” would own approximately 82.5% of the traditional telco customers in Canada. What’s that you say, the telecom field is hyper-competitive with many newcomers like cable and others? Even factoring those in, a Telus-Bell combo would own 77% of all local lines in the country.<\/p>\n

As a consumer, those are hard to swallow numbers. Potentially anti-competitive numbers.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In my view, Bell and TELUS don’t compete today for residential local lines other than where wireless competes for wireline substitution. Each has maintained a regional focus in the residential sector.<\/p>\n

It is on the wireless and enterprise side that competition concerns should arise. As such – it seems clear to me that wireless and enterprise will need to be spun out from a combined Bellus, no doubt causing significant upheaval for customers.<\/p>\n

That means great opportunities for competitors picking up the pieces; opportunities from buying pieces being spun out and opportunities to win customers unhappy with being traded around like baseball cards.<\/p>\n

What kind of distractions would this merger cause for management? What kind of chaos will this cause for national and multi-national enterprise customers?<\/p>\n

Let me paint an alternate scenario. Start by looking at the most likely assets to be permitted to be retained by the combined entity. That creates a list of assets that could be sold to TELUS by the victorious acquiring private equity firm and also identifies the assets that would need to be dealt elsewhere. <\/p>\n

TELUS and Bell talking to each other helps crystallize a dissolution plan and perhaps helps drive improved valuations from the remaining bidders.<\/p>\n

After the dust settles, I’d suggest that telecom in Canada will remain competitive, thanks to Rogers and MTS Allstream on a national level and cablecos such as Shaw and Videotron on a more regional level.<\/p>\n

A merger of Bell and TELUS may create an opportunity for someone (or some group) to instantly become a national wireless player buying existing spectrum and with millions of customers.<\/p>\n

Are there any un-conflicted investment banking firms left out there?<\/p>\n

Technorati Tags:
Bell<\/a>, TELUS<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Who thinks that TELUS and Bell can combine without having to spin out lots of assets? I disagree with Greg O’Brien’s assessment in CARTT: Using year-end 2006 figures, a “Bellus” would own approximately 82.5% of the traditional telco customers in Canada. What’s that you say, the telecom field is hyper-competitive with many newcomers like cable …<\/p>\n

What’s really going on with Bell and TELUS?<\/span> Read More »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","two_page_speed":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-870","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nWhat's really going on with Bell and TELUS? • Telecom Trends<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Who thinks that TELUS and Bell can combine without having to spin out lots of assets?I disagree with Greg O'Brien's assessment in CARTT:Using year-end • June 21, 2007\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/?p=870\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What's really going on with Bell and TELUS? 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I disagree with Greg O’Brien’s assessment in CARTT: Using year-end 2006 figures, a “Bellus” would own approximately 82.5% of the traditional telco customers in Canada. What’s that you say, the telecom field is hyper-competitive with many newcomers like cable…","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/870","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=870"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/870\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=870"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=870"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=870"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}