{"id":17657,"date":"2023-08-16T15:02:54","date_gmt":"2023-08-16T19:02:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/?p=17657"},"modified":"2023-08-16T15:51:01","modified_gmt":"2023-08-16T19:51:01","slug":"arpu-doesnt-measure-price","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/?p=17657","title":{"rendered":"ARPU doesn&#8217;t measure price"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>ARPU (average revenue per unit) is an important metric used by financial analysts to compare service providers. It is a good proxy for the average size of a bill, but it is not an effective way to compare prices, or to track pricing trends.<\/p>\n<p>For certain, the prices of services impact your monthly bill, but there are many factors at play when looking at ARPU as a key performance indicator. Earlier this week, in RBC&#8217;s Q2\/23 Review of Canadian Telecommunications Services, we read &#8220;While we believe Canadian telecom stocks\/valuations continue to be sensitive to quarterly wireless ARPU growth, we continue to believe wireless ARPU as a KPI has major limitations and therefore must be sized up alongside other wireless KPIs (i.e., subscriber growth, churn, network revenue growth, margins, lifetime value per subscriber).&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>RBC noted the evolution of wireless ARPU definitions over the past decade, including shifts driven by IFRS accounting standards (as I described <a href=\"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/?p=11716\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the last time I wrote about ARPU and prices<\/a>). The definition of the denominator units, the &#8220;U&#8221; of &#8220;ARPU&#8221;, has evolved from wireless subscribers to mobile phone subscribers, to now exclude tablets, hot spots and wireless home phone connections.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/CPI-202307-300x124.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"124\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-17661\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/CPI-202307-300x124.png 300w, https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/CPI-202307-150x62.png 150w, https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/CPI-202307.png 541w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/>For the past two months, the cellular component of Statistics Canada&#8217;s Consumer Price Index has reflected dramatic decreases in prices, approaching a 15% drop year-over-year. These results aren&#8217;t really a surprise to those of us who watch the industry and have seen a nearly continuous stream of lower prices, triggered in part by Quebecor&#8217;s absorption of Freedom Mobile, and in part the integration of Shaw with Rogers. <\/p>\n<p>All industry participants have significantly lower priced plans available now than a year ago. Statistics Canada says mobile prices in July 2023 were 14.8% lower than July of 2022.<\/p>\n<div align=center>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">BREAKING: New <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/StatCan_eng?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Statcan_eng<\/a> data shows Canadian telecom service prices continue to fall &amp; have been a main contributor against further inflation<\/p>\n<p>As per the data:<br \/>-Cellular prices were down 14.8% year-over-year in July<br \/>-Prices for internet access were down 3.8% year-over-year<\/p>\n<p>1\/2 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/aj8fJGLxWN\">pic.twitter.com\/aj8fJGLxWN<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Canadian Telecommunications Association (@CanadaTelecoms) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CanadaTelecoms\/status\/1691451255502331907?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 15, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/div>\n<p>So, why isn&#8217;t that price reduction reflected in the carriers&#8217; reported ARPU? Because ARPU reflects what services consumers have chosen to pay for, while StatCan\u2019s price index tracks, in the words of StatsCan, <a href=\"https:\/\/www150.statcan.gc.ca\/n1\/pub\/62f0014m\/62f0014m2019003-eng.htm\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">&#8220;pure price change&#8221;<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>There are many factors that contribute to ARPU variations, such as the product mix and choices of services by subscribers.<\/p>\n<p>To help understand, let&#8217;s consider monthly lease payments for a car. Let&#8217;s assume that when you last looked at cars, you had a choice between a small car, mid-sized vehicle and a full-sized model. When you considered your budget, you chose to lease the mid-sized model. Now, you start looking for a new car and you find that monthly lease prices are actually down 15% across each class of vehicle &#8211; yes, I know that this bears no relationship to the crazy increases in car prices, but work with me here. <\/p>\n<p>So let&#8217;s say you find that lease prices are down 15%. You have a choice to stick with the class of car you have at a lower monthly payment, or you may decide to pay a bit more and get more car for your money. If you chose the latter &#8211; more car for the money &#8211; would you conclude that car prices haven&#8217;t gone down? Or, would you acknowledge that you are getting more for the money, and prices have gone down?<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s put that in terms of mobile telecom. <a href=\"https:\/\/public.tableau.com\/views\/CurrentTrends\/MobilePhoneDataTraffic?:language=en-US&#038;:embed=y&#038;:embed_code_version=3&#038;:loadOrderID=4&#038;:display_count=y&#038;publish=yes&#038;:origin=viz_share_link\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">CRTC figures<\/a> show that mobile data usage has been continuing to climb, almost 20% year over year in the last reported quarter (3Q22). One national carrier indicated on its <a href=\"https:\/\/investors.rogers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Rogers-Communications-Second-Quarter-2023.pdf\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">recent analyst call<\/a> that the average increase in data usage by its subscribers is now closer to 50% year-over-year. <a href=\"https:\/\/public.tableau.com\/views\/CurrentTrends\/MobilePhoneFinancialsandSubscribers?:language=en-US&#038;:embed=y&#038;:embed_code_version=3&#038;:loadOrderID=0&#038;:display_count=y&#038;publish=yes&#038;:origin=viz_share_link\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">CRTC figures also show<\/a> that ARPU has been relatively flat. <\/p>\n<p>That does not mean prices haven&#8217;t gone down or, as some commentators have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iphoneincanada.ca\/2023\/08\/15\/statcan-telecom-prices-falling\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">suggested<\/a>, that the telecom bills for all Canadians have stayed the same. It means that while many Canadians have had their bills reduced as a result of lower prices, others have elected to upgrade their service plan because with lower prices and added data allotments they see the value in upgrading to a different plan. <\/p>\n<p>ARPU doesn&#8217;t measure price; Statistics Canada, Canada&#8217;s official statistics agency, does <a href=\"https:\/\/www150.statcan.gc.ca\/n1\/pub\/62f0014m\/62f0014m2019003-eng.htm\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">measure prices of cellular services<\/a> as part of the monthly Consumer Price Index. As reported this week by Statistics Canada, mobile prices have declined nearly 15% in the past year. People are getting more service for less money &#8211; growing at a rate of about 20% per year. <\/p>\n<p>ARPU simply isn&#8217;t the same as looking at prices. Instead, ARPU reflects different consumer choices responding to changes in price. <\/p>\n<p>Mobile prices are lower than ever before. In these inflationary times, that is something to celebrate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ARPU (average revenue per unit) is an important metric used by financial analysts to compare service providers. It is a good proxy for the average size of a bill, but it is not an effective way to compare prices, or to track pricing trends. For certain, the prices of services impact your monthly bill, but &hellip;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"> <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/?p=17657\"> <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">ARPU doesn&#8217;t measure price<\/span> Read More &raquo;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","two_page_speed":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17657","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ARPU doesn&#039;t measure price &#8226; Telecom Trends<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"ARPU (average revenue per unit) is an important metric used by financial analysts to compare service providers. 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