{"id":1547,"date":"2006-03-13T10:13:00","date_gmt":"2006-03-13T10:13:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/?p=1547"},"modified":"2006-03-13T10:13:00","modified_gmt":"2006-03-13T10:13:00","slug":"transforming-the-local-loop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/?p=1547","title":{"rendered":"Transforming the local loop"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>ITAC president Bernard Courtois used a line at one of our <a href=\"http:\/\/www.gstconferences.com\">conferences<\/a> saying that he was concerned that fighting about telephony competition was similar to creating competition for buggy whips: we&#8217;re fighting over an obsolescent product.<\/p>\n<p>His words are gaining momentum as a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tfi.com\/pubs\/r\/r02006_tlen.html\">report<\/a> comes out from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tfi.com\">Technology Futures<\/a> about their forecasts for transformation of the ILEC networks. In the report, TFI states that ILEC access lines in the US fell from their peak of 187 million in 2000 to 169 million at year-end 2004. The total is forecasted to fall to 71 million by 2010!<\/p>\n<p>The report predicts that by 2010, about 75 percent of U.S. households will have broadband service, and about 12 percent of households will subscribe to very high-speed broadband (at least 24 Mb\/s). \u201cSince we last updated the report in 2003, a major change in perception has occurred in the industry,\u201d Dr. Vanston said. \u201cBefore, our forecasts of distribution fiber, very high-speed broadband, VoIP, IP video and HDTV video were regarded as speculative. Now, it\u2019s a question of how fast. That\u2019s what this report addresses.\u201d As an aside, I note that Cable TV has a broadband pipe into the majority of Canadian homes already, delivering HDTV, VoIP, very high speed broadband.<\/p>\n<p>The research was sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group (TTFG), a consortium of telephone companies comprised of AT&T;, Bell Canada, BellSouth Telecommunications, Qwest and Verizon.<\/p>\n<p>I find it interesting that the report, <span style=\"font-style: italic;\">Transforming the Local Exchange Network<\/span>, won&#8217;t go so far as to predict the answers, or hints of answers, for how ILECs should upgrade. In other words, with competing visions of different fibre architectures, wireless, etc. &#8211; ILECs need to place some hefty bets on transforming their networks to what? All the report says is &#8220;the best way to do it depends on a number of factors and the ultimate winner is still unclear to the dispassionate observer.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>In the meantime, should the telcos be seeking equal access to the cable plant? What if cable companies were forced into an unbundled network elements regime? That would let the telcos use a reseller economic model to build customers and upgrade their network as a network optimization strategy. It would also buy the telephone companies some time for a winning technology solution to emerge.<\/p>\n<p>Unbundling the cable loop. Now that would be a fun regulatory battle!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ITAC president Bernard Courtois used a line at one of our conferences saying that he was concerned that fighting about telephony competition was similar to creating competition for buggy whips: we&#8217;re fighting over an obsolescent product. His words are gaining momentum as a report comes out from Technology Futures about their forecasts for transformation of &hellip;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"> <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/?p=1547\"> <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Transforming the local loop<\/span> Read More &raquo;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","two_page_speed":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1547","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Transforming the local loop &#8226; Telecom Trends<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"ITAC president Bernard Courtois used a line at one of our conferences saying that he was concerned that fighting about telephony competition was similar &#8226; March 13, 2006\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/?p=1547\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Transforming the local loop &#8226; Telecom Trends\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"ITAC president Bernard Courtois used a line at one of our conferences saying that he was concerned that fighting about telephony competition was similar &#8226; March 13, 2006\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/?p=1547\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Telecom Trends\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2006-03-13T10:13:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/mhgoldberg.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/mark_logo_png-scaled.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1061\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Mark Goldberg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@mark_goldberg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@mark_goldberg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Mark Goldberg\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/mhgoldberg.com\\\/blog\\\/?p=1547#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/mhgoldberg.com\\\/blog\\\/?p=1547\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Mark Goldberg\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/mhgoldberg.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/3fb9ac7e53dc710f23be648a3b1ab4d7\"},\"headline\":\"Transforming the local loop\",\"datePublished\":\"2006-03-13T10:13:00+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/mhgoldberg.com\\\/blog\\\/?p=1547\"},\"wordCount\":392,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/mhgoldberg.com\\\/blog\\\/#organization\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/mhgoldberg.com\\\/blog\\\/?p=1547#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/mhgoldberg.com\\\/blog\\\/?p=1547\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/mhgoldberg.com\\\/blog\\\/?p=1547\",\"name\":\"Transforming the local loop &#8226; 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